On the Sensitivity of Aggregate Productivity Growth Rates to Noisy Measurement

Aggregate rates of productivity growth are among the most closely watched indicators of economic performance. They are also among the most difficult to measure accurately. This paper explores the sensitivity of such rates to random measurement error using a simple generic model. The model allows for errors in the input and output components of the productivity ratio, with different variances, and for serial and cross correlation of the errors. The effects of the errors are considered from the point of view of growth rates themselves, changes in growth rates, and comparisons between rates in different countries.productivity; growth rates; measurement error

Exploring the Use of a Nonparametrically Generated Instrumetal Variable in the Estimation of a Linear Parametric Equation

The use of a nonparametrically generated instrumental variable in estimating a single-equation linear parametric model is explored, using kernel and other smoothing functions. The method, termed IVOS (Instrumental Variables Obtained by Smoothing), is applied in the estimation of measurement error and endogenous regressor models. Asymptotic and small-sample properties are investigated by simulation, using artificial data sets. IVOS is easy to apply and the simulation results exhibit good statistical properties. It can be used in situations in which standard IV cannot because suitable instruments are not available.single equation models; nonparametric; instrumental variables

Mixed Estimation When the Model and/or Stochastic Restrictions are Nonlinear

The standard mixed estimation method allows the incorporation of linear stochastic constraints into the estimation of a linear regression model. The present paper shows how the method can be adapted and extended to accommodate nonlinearities in the model, in the constraints, or both. As an illustration, it shows how nonlinear constraints can be defined so as to impose strict bounds on parameters of the model, or functions of parameters.mixed estimation; linear; nonlinear; constraints

On the Sensitivity of Aggregate Productivity Growth Rates to Noisy Measurement

Aggregate rates of productivity growth are among the most closely watched indicators of economic performance. They are also among the most difficult to measure accurately. This paper explores the sensitivity of such rates to random measurement error using a simple generic model. The model allows for errors in the input and output components of the productivity ratio, with different variances, and for serial and cross correlation of the errors. The effects of the errors are considered from the point of view of growth rates themselves, changes in growth rates, and comparisons between rates in different countries.productivity; growth rates; measurement error

Density and temperature of energetic electrons in the Earth's magnetotail derived from high-latitude GPS observations during the declining phase of the solar cycle

Single relativistic-Maxwellian fits are made to high-latitude GPS-satellite observations of energetic electrons for the period January 2006-November 2010; a constellation of 12 GPS space vehicles provides the observations. The derived fit parameters (for energies similar to 0.1-1.0 MeV), in combination with field-line mapping on the nightside of the magnetosphere, provide a survey of the energetic electron density and temperature distribution in the magnetotail between McIlwain L-values of L = 6 and L = 22. Analysis reveals the characteristics of the density-temperature distribution of energetic electrons and its variation as a function of solar wind speed and the Kp index. The density-temperature characteristics of the magnetotail energetic electrons are very similar to those found in the outer electron radiation belt as measured at geosynchronous orbit. The energetic electron density in the magnetotail is much greater during increased geomagnetic activity and during fast solar wind. The total electron density in the magnetotail is found to be strongly correlated with solar wind speed and is at least a factor of two greater for high-speed solar wind (V-SW = 500-1000 km s(-1)) compared to low-speed solar wind (V-SW = 100-400 km s(-1)). These results have important implications for understanding (a) how the solar wind may modulate entry into the magnetosphere during fast and slow solar wind, and (b) if the magnetotail is a source or a sink for the outer electron radiation belt

Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence

The aging of the population is expected to result in substantial increases in the costs of maintaining health care and pension programs, and that is a source of widespread concern. However, a proper assessment requires that attention be given to all categories of government expenditure, including education and others associated with younger age groups, and not just those associated with the older population. It requires also that privately provided goods and services be considered, since their costs must be charged against the same national income as publicly provided ones. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side -- the economy's productive capacity. An important conclusion is that while other influences will no doubt play a role, demographic effects by themselves are likely to cause government expenditure (all categories, all levels of government combined) to increase by no more than the rate of growth of the population, and by less than the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. Taking public and private costs together, and assigning appropriate weights to different age groups, the overall "dependency ratio" can be expected to remain at its current low level for another decade and a half or two decades, and then to rise as the baby boom generation retires in large numbers. However, the projected future ratio never reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s. Although the overall "burden" of population aging is manageable, major adjustments will be required in the coming decades, especially in the area of federal/provincial cost sharing. For the most part, though, the effects of population aging are predictable, slow, and some time off.population aging; economic costs; dependency ratio

Taxing a Commodity With and Without Revenue Neutrality: An Exploration Using a Calibrated Theoretical Consumer Equilibrium Model

It has long been recognized that taxing a commodity that generates negative externalities can be used to reduce the consumption of that commodity. A variant involves the imposition of revenue neutrality but that may alter the tax rate required to meet a consumption reduction target. We explore the relationships among the commodity tax rate, the demand and supply elasticities, and the revenue offsets by calibrating a theoretical consumer equilibrium model and then recalibrating it with alternative parameter configurations. For each configuration we simulate equilibrium for three policy scenarios: no neutrality, neutrality achieved by subsidizing other commodities, and neutrality achieved by income transfer.Consumer Market Equilibrium; Commodity Taxation; Revenue Neutrality

Population, Labour Force, and Long-term Economic Growth

The Canadian population is aging as the children of the "baby boom" move into and through middle age and then on toward the retirement years. The "baby bust" that followed the boom has slowed the rate of population growth and reduced sharply the supply of young people entering the labour force. The rates of participation of women in the labour force are now approaching those of men and little can be expected in the way of continuing further growth from that source. Immigration has thus taken on an important role in determining the rates of population and labour force growth. We explore these and related issues and draw out their implications for Canada's economic growth prospects.population; labour force; immigration; baby boom; economic growth

Some Demographic Consequences of Revising the Definition of 'Old' to Reflect Future Changes in Life Table Probabilities

Sixty-five has long been used to define the beginning of 'old age'. Yet it is clear that the definition is arbitrary, and with continuing reductions in mortality and morbidity rates it will become increasingly inappropriate as time passes. We consider how the definition might be modified to reflect changes in life table probabilities, and how the future numbers and proportions in 'old age' would be affected. In a similar manner we consider also the redefinition of the 'oldest old' from a current definition of 85 and over.life table probabilities; old age

What is Retirement? A Review and Assessment of Alternative Concepts and Measures

Since the concept of retirement is prominent in both popular thinking and academic studies it would be helpful if the notion were analytically sound, could be measured with precision, and would make possible comparisons of patterns of retirement over time and among different populations. This paper reviews and assesses the many concepts and measures that have been proposed, summarizing them in groupings that reflect non-participation or reduced participation in the labour force, receipt of pension income, end-of-career employment, selfassessed retirement, or combinations of those characteristics. It concludes that there is no agreed measure and that no one measure dominates. Instead, new measures continue to be proposed to take account of additional refinements as new data sets become available, thereby further restricting possible comparisons. The confusing array of definitions reflects the practical problem that underlies the concept of retirement: it is an essentially negative notion, a notion of what people are not doing – namely, that they are not working. A more positive approach would be to focus instead on what people are doing, including especially their involvement in non-market activities that are socially productive, even if those activities do not contribute to national income as conventionally measured.concepts of retirement, measures of retirement